Predictions …
Since I was completely wrong on Iowa, why not try again?
First, the GOP: Trump by at least 10 percent. I think the polling is high but not that high. It’s been a 15 to 20 point lead for many, many months. I don’t see it collapsing even with so many people stating they could change their minds.
I’m going to guess that there will be a virtual tie for second between Kasich and Christie, with the rest not far behind. Kasich’s ground game really is not as good as he is making it out to be. However, many of the same people who were with Huntsman in 2012 are with Kasich this time (at least here in Concord). While the 2012 dynamic was different, this did boost the more moderate and liberal Republicans to prop Huntsman up to 17 percent.
Fiorina is a dark horse for fourth. Cruz, Rubio, and then Bush in some order. Paul will beat Carson.
I’m calling Sanders by at least 15 percent. I’m also going to predict some weirdness at the polls this year. While NH has voter ID, I know that the Clinton campaign has been encouraging its out-of-state campaign staffers to vote in the primary. I also know that when I asked other campaigns about this that Kasich’s campaign said that it was telling its staffers and volunteers to follow the law … which means that their staffers and volunteers can file affidavits to vote, too. Will this change the outcome? Probably not. But you never know.